COVID-19 Day 63: Disappearing Predictions


In a previous article, I cited a Singapore University of Technology and Design’s SIR models that predicted a 97% probability the COVID-19 pandemic will end in the US sometime in June and a 99% probability it would end by October 2020. Today I checked to see if those dates had changed and discovered the charts have been taken down with a disclaimer page. Effectively, they’re hiding the data from public view now.

Conspiracy to hide positive news? Or fear of liability for being blamed for communities reopening and getting infected? Occam’s razor leads me to think the latter.

Funny thing is that instead of showing you their predictions, they link to other major universities, predictive models. They’re either passing the buck or throwing these other schools under the bus depending on your point of view.

The project is internalized. Below are some live public COVID-19 forecasting efforts around the world.

– Imperial College London

– University of Geneva, ETH Zürich & EPFL

– Massachusetts Institute of Technology

– Los Alamos National Laboratories

– The University of Washington, Seattle

– The University of Texas, Austin

– Northeastern University

– University of California, Los Angeles


Personally I was surprised they even made such predictions public in the first place.




COVID-19 Day 53: The Pandemic Ends in June. Or October. Probably.


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