COVID-19 Day 63: Disappearing Predictions

C19_predictions

In a previous article, I cited a Singapore University of Technology and Design’s SIR models that predicted a 97% probability the COVID-19 pandemic will end in the US sometime in June and a 99% probability it would end by October 2020. Today I checked to see if those dates had changed and discovered the charts have been taken down with a disclaimer page. Effectively, they’re hiding the data from public view now.

Conspiracy to hide positive news? Or fear of liability for being blamed for communities reopening and getting infected? Occam’s razor leads me to think the latter.

Funny thing is that instead of showing you their predictions, they link to other major universities, predictive models. They’re either passing the buck or throwing these other schools under the bus depending on your point of view.

The project is internalized. Below are some live public COVID-19 forecasting efforts around the world.

– Imperial College London https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/

– University of Geneva, ETH Zürich & EPFL https://renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epidemic-Forecasting/

– Massachusetts Institute of Technology https://www.covidanalytics.io/projections

– Los Alamos National Laboratories https://covid-19.bsvgateway.org/

– The University of Washington, Seattle https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

– The University of Texas, Austin https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/projections/

– Northeastern University https://covid19.gleamproject.org/

– University of California, Los Angeles https://covid19.uclaml.org/

 

Personally I was surprised they even made such predictions public in the first place.

 


 

SOURCES

COVID-19 Day 53: The Pandemic Ends in June. Or October. Probably.

https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/

 

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